Agriguru News:- Global Rice Prices Fall 5% As Supply Grows and Demand Slows

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The global rice market is seeing big changes, with prices dropping over 5% in the last three weeks. This drop is mainly due to higher production and lower demand, signalling a shift in the global rice trade.

India is leading this trend. For example, Sona Masuri rice from Chennai is now ₹42 per kg, down from ₹62 per kg in December. Premium EU-standard rice is priced at ₹52-54 per kg. India’s export prices are also highly competitive, with 5% broken white rice selling for $447-451 per tonne and parboiled rice at $440-444 per tonne—much cheaper than Thailand's $494 and $506 per tonne.

Different regions are responding in unique ways. In Sri Lanka, imports have slowed because of government price caps, while Malaysian buyers are negotiating hard for lower rates, offering $490 per tonne compared to Indian quotes of $580. Meanwhile, African buyers remain active, with 18 ships currently at Kakinada port waiting to load rice. A key update is India’s deal with Indonesia to supply one million tonnes of rice.

India’s record harvest has been a game-changer. The kharif season produced 119.34 million tonnes, up from last year’s 113.26 million tonnes, and total output this year is expected to hit 137 million tonnes. This surplus has allowed India to stay competitive, even with some export restrictions still in place.

However, currency fluctuations are creating challenges. A stronger dollar has increased profits in local currency terms but made Indian rice pricier in global markets. Additionally, about 500 containers of Vietnamese rice are stuck at Malaysia’s Pasir Gudang port due to falling prices, forcing exporters to sell at discounts.

Global rice prices have been easing since September when India relaxed some of its export limits. But ongoing controls on certain rice types and currency issues in many countries continue to shape the market. India’s strong production is playing a major role in defining the new dynamics of global rice trade.